The two Large Lengthy-Term Dangers Facing Markets and the Economy: Bank of America
The American customer has been resilient in 2023. Jeff Greenberg / Getty
- Investors should not be so down on corporate earnings as 1st-quarter benefits handily beat estimates, BofA mentioned.
- BofA raised its 2023 S&P 500 EPS forecast by eight% and introduced a new 2024 forecast that suggests 9% development.
- But there are two looming dangers that could eventually rattle the economy and the stock industry.
1st-quarter earnings benefits are in, and they are a lot greater than Wall Street analysts anticipated.
Bank of America’s Ohsung Kwon mentioned in a Thursday note that corporate America’s capability to promptly adapt to a volatile macro atmosphere suggests investors should not be so adverse on the economy offered that earnings benefits beat estimates by five% as corporations start to concentrate on productivity and efficiency gains.
“A powerful 1st-quarter after once again showed corporate America’s capability to preserve margins,” Kwon mentioned, highlighting the reality that inflation pressures are easing while pricing power remains on solid footing.
The bank upgraded its S&P 500 2023 earnings per share estimate to $215 from $200 due to the 1st-quarter earnings strength, representing an enhance of eight%. Also, Kwon introduced the bank’s 2024 S&P 500 EPS estimate at $235, which would represent annual development of 9%.
“Earnings commonly recover stronger than they fall and we anticipate 2024 to be a greater profit atmosphere following companies’ concentrate on efficiency and productivity,” Kwon mentioned, adding that a weaker US dollar could also assistance enhance profit development subsequent year.
Bank of America
More upside drivers to corporate earnings, the economy, and the stock industry contain a new capital expenditure cycle that leads to massive investments from corporations, with an estimated $600 billion in mega projects becoming announced considering the fact that January 2021, according to the note.
Although the capital expenditure boom is becoming driven by reshoring efforts, in which corporations bring some or all of their production and sourcing capabilities back into America, some is also becoming driven by more than $550 billion in fiscal stimulus that stems from the bipartisan infrastructure bill.
These components pale in comparison to the key aspect that helped enhance corporate earnings more than the previous decade: economic engineering in the kind of stock buybacks.
“We anticipate productivity-led earnings development ahead, rather than financially engineered development from the final decade,” Kwon mentioned.
But there are nevertheless two massive, lengthy-term dangers that could negatively influence the economy and stock industry, according to Kwon.
These dangers are the increasing trend of de-globalization and refinancing dangers due to greater interest prices.
“We are coming out of the finest 20-year period for earnings development, which started with China joining the WTO in 2001. De-globalization is a massive secular danger, which drove most of the margin improvement more than the previous 20 years,” Kwon explained.
And though about 75% of corporate America’s existing debt burden is fixed at historically low interest prices, greater interest prices could nevertheless be a headwind for particular sectors, like True Estate and Industrials, if the Federal Reserve does not reduce prices in the foreseeable future.
And current FOMC minutes from the Fed recommend a lot demands to take place for interest prices to be reduce anytime quickly.
Bank of America
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