Economists Continuously Adjust Their Recession Predictions

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a tool used to predict the direction of the economy, fell in October. Despite this, many economists are still adjusting their forecasts for a recession. According to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board, one reason we are not currently in a recession is because consumer spending has remained stronger than expected. However, she still predicts a short recession early next year due to lack of dramatic decline in manufacturing and housing market.

On the other hand, U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics is no longer predicting a recession for this month. He now believes that a soft landing is more likely and expects unemployment to increase and labor conditions to begin to soften. He also stated that he is willing to update his forecasts if the economic data continues to surprise him.

Amidst all these economic changes, Marketplace remains committed to providing accurate and accessible news that keeps people informed. The show relies on financial support from listeners like you to continue doing so. A small monthly donation will help keep Marketplace reporting on the news that matters the most.