Germany is currently facing another period of economic contraction, according to the latest report from the Bundesbank. Despite challenges such as high energy costs and supply chain disruptions, there are signs of potential recovery on the horizon for 2024.
The Bundesbank’s forecast indicates that Germany’s economy will continue to struggle in the final quarter of 2023, extending an industrial downturn exacerbated by factors such as the war in Ukraine, rising energy prices, and increasing interest rates. This marks the only quarter this year with growth.
However, there is hope for 2024 as solid employment figures and potential wage increases could support an eventual upturn. Additionally, there are tentative signs of recovery in foreign demand and an expected boost in real consumption from higher net incomes. These positive factors provide some optimism for the future.
Despite these potential drivers, there is still no definitive sign of a rebound in global industrial activity as new orders continue to decline and overall demand remains weak. The exchange rate has remained stable post-publication, with EUR/USD trading at 1.0930.