Brace for ‘Crash Landing’ As US Economy Heads for Recession: Rosenberg
David Rosenberg. Rosenberg Analysis & Associates
- David Rosenberg has warned the US economy is headed for a “crash landing” or main downturn.
- The veteran economist cited the Philly Fed’s manufacturing survey, a established recession indicator.
- Rosenberg told Insider in February that the S&P 500 could plunge 25% from its existing level.
Do not hold out hope for a mild downturn, as the US economy appears set to endure a serious recession, David Rosenberg has warned.
“Take a great tough appear at this chart and inform me we are heading into a ‘soft’ or ‘no’ landing,” he tweeted on Thursday. “A lot more like a ‘crash’ landing.”
The veteran economist was referring to the Philly Fed’s month-to-month survey of producers, which recorded its seventh consecutive unfavorable reading in March. A lot more than 34% of the firms surveyed reported declines in activity, and each new orders and shipments hit their lowest levels because Might 2020.
Rosenberg attached a chart displaying the metric has unfailingly plunged through every of the previous eight recessions.
“Philly Fed at a level that is eight for eight on the recession contact and with no head fakes,” Rosenberg mentioned.
The Rosenberg Analysis president and former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch has been sounding the alarm on economic markets and the economy for a although.
“A single added sign that Powell’s ultimately drained the final ounce of punch out of the bowl,” he tweeted earlier this week, referring to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He was commenting on the reality that stocks did not rally, regardless of mounting expectations that the Fed will not hike interest prices this month.
“Smacks of a crisis of self-assurance,” he added in another tweet this week.
Rosenberg not too long ago told Insider that the inflation threat has faded, and a US recession is practically assured. He also warned the S&P 500 could plummet by almost a quarter from its existing level to about three,000 points, and home costs may possibly bottom 25% beneath their peak final year.
Inflation spiked to a 40-year higher final year, spurring the Fed to raise interest prices from almost zero to upwards of four.five% more than the previous 12 months. Greater prices lift borrowing fees and encourage saving more than spending, which can curb the pace of price tag increases.
Even so, they can also temper demand, boost unemployment, and drag down asset costs, boosting the possibilities of a recession. In addition, they can place stress on banks’ bond holdings, as bond costs move inversely to interest prices. That was a element in the market place-shaking collapse of Silicon Valley Bank final week.
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